The Christian McCaffrey Contract Haters Need To Relax

Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey signed the richest running back salary in NFL history this week.

At first glance, it doesn't seem like much of a story. It's a blip on the radar compared to the salaries of the league's highest paid players. Some of whom, he's definitively better than. After all, he's racking up HISTORIC numbers and is just 23 years old.

"Wow PAWL. A great athlete got paid. Who cares?"

That's the thing. People do care. Because many are SLAMMING the move. Why? Because to them, a running back getting paid spells certain doom for their employer.

There's some logic to that. Things haven't gone so well for these 4 franchises who gave running backs big extensions:

Devonta Freeman and the Atlanta Falcons
David Johnson and the Arizona Cardinals
Todd Gurley and the Los Angeles Rams
Le'Veon Bell and the New York Jets

On top of that, the Panthers didn't have to give McCaffrey an extension. At least yet. Assuming they'd have picked up his fifth year option this offseason, the Panthers would have paid the fourth year running back less than $3 M in 2020, and likely something in the $8-$10 M range for the final year of his rookie deal.

But they did. And I've got no problem with it. Here's why:

1. He's worth it.

“Pawl. He’s a RUNNING BACK. Not a quarterback, which Carolina desperately needs.”

Ok. But;

He's 23, turning 24 in June. 23!
In his first 3 seasons, he has 303 receptions. That's the 2nd most by ANY player.
Those 303 receptions netted 2,523 yards, the most ever by a running back.
He's the only player to have 2500 rushing yards and 2500 receiving yards over his first 3 years
He's 5th all time in yards from scrimmage over his first 3 years, ahead of Barry Sanders, and trailing only Ladanian Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, and Chris Johnson

Remove your jaw from the floor, and let it drop gain. Christian McCaffrey did all of that despite these obstacles:

His starting quarterback - Cam Newton - had been dealing with a shoulder injury dating back to the month before Carolina drafted McCaffrey, when had surgery on
For half of 2018, Newton's shoulder was such a problem his opponents even knew. It led to a second half collapse and Cam eventually being shelved for the year wit
And for 90% of last season, McCaffrey was stuck with Kyle Allen and Will Grier as his quarterbacks after Newton suffered what would become a season ending foot injury.

Let's role play. Pretend you're an NFL GM. Are you really claiming that . . .

You'd have the stomach to trade this guy? That's worked out well for Texans head coach / general manager Bill O'Brien with DeAndre Hopkins...
You think you could get him on the field by underpaying him with the franchise tag for a couple of years? Good luck getting him to show up.
You'd let him walk in free agency? Hardo! Also, you'd be walking out the door right behind him.

2. What do THESE bad contracts have to do with Christian McCaffrey?

We've seen five running backs get massive pay days over the last few offseasons. And four of those deals haven't worked out.

August 2017: Devonta Freeman (5 years, $41.25 M) with the Atlanta Falcons
July 2018: Todd Gurley (4 years, $57.5 M) with the Los Angeles Rams
September 2018: David Johnson (3 years, $39 M) with the Arizona Cardinals
March 2019: Le'Veon Bell (4 years, $52.5 M) with the New York Jets
September 2019: Ezekiel Elliott (6 years, $90 M) with the Dallas Cowboys

But why do THESE contracts predict that Christian McCaffrey will fail? Especially when we consider the following factors:

The Freeman contract simply made no sense. Yeah, he was a good running back in his prime. But did anyone ever consider him to be one of the league's best? After all, he was sharing a good percentage of touches with the also productive Tevin Coleman in the two years prior. To make matters worse, the Falcons handed this extension out AFTER then offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan had taken the 49ers head coaching job. Atlanta's offense hasn't been the same since. Honestly, I think that was predictable.
The Rams paid Gurley a lot of money considering he'd torn his ACL 4 years prior. Especially considering less than half a year later he was getting fewer touches due to what we'd hear was an "arthritic condition" in his knee. I guess that's what you get when you let Les Snead "blaze the new standard" (he said that about the deal) for running backs ahead of everyone else.
In the wake of Gurley's deal, Johnson's contract looks a whole lot better. Still, he'd missed the majority of the previous season with a freakish dislocated wrist injury. Why didn't the Cardinals wait to see him back on the field?
Jets coach Adam Gase and then general manager Mike Maccagnan reportedly didn't see eye to eye on signing Bell to a contract of that size. It can't be a coincidence that Maccagnan has since been fired. Does Gase even want Bell? On top of that, could Bell have realistically succeeded in a year where Sam Darnold missed time due to mononucleosis?
Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1357 yards, caught 54 passes for another 420 yards, and had 14 combined touchdowns last year. Do some people really think he had a down year?

I'll admit I'm being a bit of a Captain Hindsight here. And all of the stories above are cautionary tales about paying a running back long term. But what similarities does McCaffrey share with the 4 swings and misses above?

3. Running Back contracts alone don't ruin a franchise

This may be recency bias. Or based on my back and forths with my radio co-host Danny O'Neil. Or my observations of the militant “Let Russ Cook” faction of Seahawks twitter. But on a per contract basis, I feel that running back mega-deals get more criticism than extensions at any other position. Including quarterback.

The fall of the Los Angeles Rams has been the spring's best drama. And Todd Gurley's rapid decline in ability was a major factor. After all, his running and catching transformed the Rams offense into a temporary juggernaut. But the Ram’s descent hasn't entirely been due to Gurley. I’d argue Les Snead's love of contract extensions has had a much greater impact:

2018: G Rob Havenstein: 4 years, $32.5 M
2018: Todd Gurley: 4 years, $60 M
2018: WR Brandin Cooks: 5 years, $80 M
2018: DT Aaron Donald: 6 years, $135 M
2019: TE Tyler Higbee: 4 years, $31 M
2019: QB Jared Goff: 4 years, $134 M
2020: DT Michael Brockers: 3 years $30 M
He might not be done. WR Cooper Kupp is a FA in '21. So is Jalen Ramsey, who was acquired for 2 first round picks

Gurley's knee may have brought the Rams offense back down to earth. But they're in cap hell because of Snead.

4. A multi-purpose running back elevates the play of a quarterback

Going into 2020, how many of the following quarterbacks would you believe in if they DIDN'T have an elite multi-purpose running back?

Lamar Jackson, who has Mark Ingram (1,018 yards rushing, 10 TD, 26 receptions for 247 yards, 5 TDs)
Kirk Cousins, who has Dalvin Cook (1,135 yards rushing, 13 TD, 53 receptions for 519 yards)
Drew Brees, who has Alvin Kamara (797 yards, rushing, 5 TDs, 81 receptions for 533 yards, 1 TD)
Dak Prescott, who had Ezekiel Elliott (1,357 yards, 12 TDs, 54 receptions for 420 yards, 2 TD)

Of the guys above, I'd cautiously pick Lamar and Dak. But I wouldn't feel great about either just yet.

And going forward, do you believe ANY of these QBs can survive in the NFL without help from their respective elite ground mates?

Goff, who HAD Gurley: ('17/'18: 1278 yards, 15 TDs, 61.5 receptions for 684 yards, 5 TDs)
Daniel Jones, who has Saquon Barkley ('18/'19 average: 1,155 yards, 8.5 TD, 71.5 receptions, 579.5 yards, 3 TDs)
Joe Burrow, who will likely have Joe Mixon (1137 yards, 5 TD, 35 receptions, 287 yards, 3 TDs)

Right now? I'd say nope.

5. Do you want a cheap stable of horses? Or a magical unicorn?

Considering how often they touch the ball - let's say on average, the positional group touches the ball on at least 40% of snaps - it's pretty incredible how underpaid running backs are.

The average team pays ITS ENTIRE RUNNING BACK GROUP $8.9 M dollars, roughly 4% of the salary cap.
Only 5 running backs make more than $10 M annually (2nd to only tight ends), and just 11 make over $6 M. That’s the lowest number in the NFL.

I understand why. Injuries have scared teams into piecing together patchwork units of underpaid mid to late round draft picks. Low risk. High reward. Just look at the 49ers running attack.

But don't get it twisted. Despite lacking an elite back, San Francisco's running back group goes into 2020 as the 4th highest paid unit in the league. Ironically, I believe they lost the Super Bowl because they went AWAY from those backs down the stretch. Do you think they'd have done the same thing with someone of McCaffrey's caliber behind Jimmy G? And would you rather pay Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson nearly $15 M this coming season? Or CMC his average annual salary of $16 M?

"WE GET IT PAWL, PLEASE WRAP IT UP, I'VE AGED 3 YEARS."

I'm not endorsing giving ALL running backs massive contracts. But Christian McCaffrey? As a wise group of philosophers once said, Baby, he's worth it.